If there is one thing I have learned in the last two years in the cryptocurrency world, it’s that things change so quickly in this sector, it can humble anybody. Anyone who says he knows what he is talking about, doesn’t!
Still, it’s New Year’s Day, so what the heck? I’ll put my neck out there with 12 predictions for 2018:
1. Ripple will lose its luster
People will realize that Ripple is a cool business but that it doesn’t actually require a protocol token to work. There are a number of other protocols (including some VERY high market cap ones) that also don’t require a token to work. The market will start to weed them out. That said, Ripple will be a valuable company because of the service it provides. It just won’t be a valuable protocol. The protocol multiples are much higher. Disclosure: I previously owned XRP, but don’t hold any now.
2. The Lightning Network will face the big test
Either Lightning will work and Bitcoin will regain its prominence as THE default cryptocoin in the world, or it will fail miserably and Bitcoin will continue to fall further and further behind as a coin of relevance. If that happens, Bitcoin Cash becomes the “real” Bitcoin.
To me, it’s a coin toss. I’m playing catchup on this one as I sold a lot of my BCH when it came out in favor of BTC, thinking SegWit2x would happen, but I was wrong. Ouch.
3. The privacy wars will begin as people recognize the difference between pseudonymity and anonymity
When they do, the competition will intensify for adoption of a “privacy” coin like
- Zcash (disclosure: They’re a client and I’m biased)
- Monero (which seems to be the privacy coin of choice on the Dark Web).
- Dash has amazing marketing (Amanda B. Johnson is probably the best in the business) but questions abound about the reputation of some of the leadershp team, weaknesses within the masternode setup and possibly even legal implications.
- PIVX which has a fun team and is really fast plus can integrate with Slack.
I predict that one or two of these coins will be recognized as the next Bitcoin within the mainstream media. There are a lot of factors here that will determine the winner, but I it will come down to whose security mentality is superior. We’ll only know that after a few big attacks.
4. The DAO market will take off
The DAO market, currently led by companies like Aragon, Colony, District0x, and DAOStack — will soon have a few proof-of-concept DAOs running. It’ll be interesting to hear the metrics they report in terms of set up time, user base, types of activities/DAOs in operation, etc. These protocols have massive opportunity (as I wrote previously on VentureBeat), though the vision in this market may be way ahead of the tech.
If there are 50 or so legit projects in pilot in 2018, then this sector is on a fast pace. I’m planning a pilot DAO of my own, by the way, so I’ll be updating readers about what the process looks like from the inside.