The Segwit2x hard fork is coming in less than two weeks and many are wondering about what may happen. In this article, I’m going to go through a few of the scenarios.
Big caveat is that I don’t expect any of these scenarios to come to pass. We are examining first-order scenarios in order to examine more complicated scenarios in a later article.
The current situation is the culmination of a lot of events that have come before which include the following:
- November 2015 — Pieter Wuille presents the Segwit proposal
- February 2017 — Shaolinfry proposes UASF
- March 2017 — UASF becomes BIP148
- May 2017 — NYA is signed
- July 22, 2017 — BIP91 goes into effect
- August 24 — Segwit activates
The btc1 repository hard-coded the fork date to be 90*144 blocks after Segwit activation. This block, 494784 is estimated to be around November 15–16.
What happens at this block is the main point of interest today.